Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Bracket Projections Week 1

Here's my "if the season ended today" bracket projection. I'll try and have this up every Tuesday from now until the NCAA tournament field is selected in late March.

The Breakdown

Current PWR
1. Quinnipiac
2. St. Cloud State
3. North Dakota
4. Providence
5. Harvard 
6. Michigan
7. Boston College
8. Notre Dame
9. Nebraska Omaha
10. Yale
11. Boston University
12. Lowell
13. Denver
14. Cornell
15t. Minnesota
15t. Penn State
20t. Bowling Green (WCHA)
20t. Mankato (WCHA)
23t. Robert Morris (AHA)

Minnesota wins the tie breaker over Penn State because they have a higher RPI. Same with Mankato over BGSU. Every league in the NCAA must have one team in the field and I am assuming the highest rated team in the PairWise has won their respective conference tournament. So, Robert Morris and Bowling Green get in, Minnesota and Penn State are on the outside looking in. 

Field of 16:
1. Quinnipiac
2. St. Cloud State
3. North Dakota
4. Providence
5. Harvard 
6. Michigan
7. Boston College
8. Notre Dame
9. Nebraska Omaha
10. Yale
11. Boston University
12. Lowell
13. Denver
14. Cornell
15. Bowling Green (WCHA)
16. Robert Morris (AHA)

The field is then broken into four groups or the four regionals with the goal of "bracket integrity", i.e 1vs16, 2vs15 and so on. There can not be inter-conference mach-ups in the first round and hosts of regionals must be placed in their host city no mater what their ranking is. Holy Cross hosts in Worcester, Union in Albany, Minnesota in St. Paul and Miami in Cincinnati. Teams can also be moved to "boost attendance" (see Providence playing in Providence last year). 

Regionals

Worcester
1. Quinnipiac vs 16. Robert Morris 
8. Notre Dame vs 9. Nebraska Omaha

St. Paul 
2. St. Cloud vs 15 Bowling Green
7. Boston College vs 10. Yale

Cincinnati
3. North Dakota vs 14. Cornell 
6. Michigan vs 11. Boston University 

Albany 
4. Providence vs 13. Denver
5. Harvard vs 12. Lowell 

Theoretically, based off integrity and no inter-conference match-ups, it should be left this way, but there are few moves we can make to boost attendance: BC could come east and be placed in the Worcester bracket, while Notre Dame is shipped closer to home in Cincinnati. BU can also be moved to the east and switch places with Lowell. 

Final Bracket:

Worcester
1. Quinnipiac vs 16. Robert Morris 
7. Boston College vs 9. Nebraska Omaha

St. Paul 
2. St. Cloud vs 15 Bowling Green
8. Notre Dame vs 10. Yale

Cincinnati
3. North Dakota vs 14. Cornell 
6. Michigan vs 12. Lowell 

Albany 
4. Providence vs 13. Denver
5. Harvard vs 11. Boston University 

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