Monday, February 15, 2016

Weekend Lookback: Let's Look Ahead

This weekend was a tale of two completely different games. Unfortunately, I was not at Saturday's game and I have no info on the game other than BU lost 6-3 and Dylan Zink netted a hat trick for Lowell. I was in the frozen hell that is Orono Maine in February playing two of my own games. We lost 5-4 and 13-9. I had 11 points in two games and 6 goals in game two… No, none of that was a typo. Club hockey is interesting to say the least. 

Player of the Week
Jordan Greenway, game winning overtime goal on Friday.
Greenway was also named Hockey East Rookie of the Week.
(Photo by Matt Dresens) 

Anyway, since I really don't have much to add from this weekend, let's look ahead a little bit. There are just two weekends left in the regular season. This weekend, BU takes on UNH in a home and home series and then head out to South Bend to face Notre Dame in a two game set. 

With four games left, BU sits in 5th in Hockey East with 23 points, 3 behind Lowell. BU does have two games in-hand on Lowell, though. Obviously, the goal would be to get in the top four, get a bye from the opening round of the conference tournament and then host the quarterfinals at home. If that doesn't happen, BU is almost certainly going to finish fifth and face 12th place UMass. The Terriers are 7 points ahead of sixth place Northeastern and UMass has a strangle hold on last place. 

Playing in the opening round would not be the worst thing ever. BU should make quick work of whoever they face in that round and it will help their PairWise with two more wins on their schedule. The one thing that would not be ideal is if somehow they ended up having to face Notre Dame in South Bend in the quarterfinals. That would be two trips to ND in three weekends. Currently, The Irish have a one point lead on Boston College for the top seed in the tournament. 

Fun With Numbers
According to Playoff, BU has a 47% chance of finishing fifth and a 45% chance of landing at fourth. The Terriers have a less than one percent chance of winning the league and the same chance to finish worse than 5th. 

Long story short, BU will almost certainly finish fourth or fifth in Hockey East. BU has finished tied for third or better every year since 2004, with the exception of 2014 when they finished 9th. If BU finished outside the top four and win the tournament, they will not only be the first team not to get a bye and win the tournament, but also will be the lowest seed ever to win.   

BU almost won the tournament in 2003 as the five seed, but lost in overtime 1-0 to New Hampshire in the championship game.   

At The Polls
BU fell two slots in the USCHO poll from 7th to 9th. Quinnipiac was again first. Boston College moved up one slot from third to second, St. Cloud was third and North Dakota fell two spaces to fourth. Providence was the final team in the top five.

BU dropped into a tie for 10th with Yale in the PWR. They were 7th com into the weekend. 

Around Hockey East 
Tuesday: UMass beat America International 4-3 in overtime to win the Pioneer Valley Cup.

Friday: Notre Dame took care of Maine 4-1 at home… Boston College doubled up Merrimack 6-3 at Conte… Providence blanked UConn at Schneider… Vermont stuck past New Hampshire at the Whitt… Northeastern shutout UMass 5-0 in Amherst… BU took down Lowell 2-1 in overtime at Agganis. 

Saturday: Vermont and New Hampshire tied 2-2 in Durham… Providence completed the sweep of UConn win a 3-2 road win… Northeastern also swept UMass with a 4-2 win at Matthews… BC and Merrimack skated to a 5-5 tie at Lawler… Notre Dame finished off the home sweep of Maine with a 5-1 win. 

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